Gibraltar approves prediction market platform licensing

(AsiaGameHub) –   The Government of Gibraltar has confirmed a significant development by issuing a license to its inaugural prediction markets operator.

While the government has not formally named the company, a Gibraltar-based entity, Predict Street Ltd, appears on the official register of licensed operators as a betting intermediary.

This platform declares itself the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026” and invites users to register for early access by providing their name, email, and country of residence.

The Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, confirmed Gibraltar’s entry into the expanding prediction market sector, indicating a strategic goal to broaden its gambling and financial services landscape.

This decision is likely to attract attention, as Gibraltar is now among a small number of European jurisdictions permitting prediction markets. This stands in sharp opposition to other European nations such as the Netherlands, Romania, Ukraine, France, and Portugal.

Due to the debate over whether these platforms constitute gambling, certain prediction businesses have been prohibited in various regions. For instance, the five countries listed have all expelled Polymarket from operating within their borders.

Feetham announced the move in Parliament, stating it is part of a wider plan to draw new types of investment and establish Gibraltar as a leader in emerging gaming and fintech markets.

“We have licensed a new company operating in the “prediction markets” sector, processing the application in record time following my attendance at Consensus Hong Kong last month,” he said.

“This is the pace at which we must act to help offset at least some of the loss of tax revenues following the recent increase in UK Gambling Duty, while continuing to grow our local ecosystem.

“We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests.”

Gibraltar joins predictions hype

Prediction markets, where users can trade on the results of real-world events, have become increasingly popular worldwide as tools for both investment and user engagement.

Although marketed as financial services, these platforms are often likened to betting exchanges, and some regulatory bodies classify them as a form of gambling.

The sector’s leading firms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have received mixed reactions alongside a massive surge in user activity and revenue in recent months.

Beyond facing scrutiny in Europe, both have been banned in New Zealand, and the Dutch regulator, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), recently ordered Polymarket to stop operations in the Netherlands for offering ‘illegal gambling services’.

Both companies have also been criticized for listing markets related to war. In the US, the largest market for these services, lawmakers are starting to respond; a bill was introduced to the US Senate last month to prohibit US government officials from trading on such sites.

However, the financial potential of prediction markets is evident. The sites handle millions of dollars in wagers, and Kalshi achieved a valuation of $22bn (£16.5bn) last month after a funding round exceeding $1bn.

It remains unconfirmed if one of the two major prediction market firms will establish operations in Gibraltar. Other prediction platforms or even traditional iGaming companies looking to expand into this area might also target the jurisdiction.

This trend is not unusual; FanDuel and DraftKings have launched their own prediction platforms in the US, and the UK betting exchange Matchbook declared its plan to do the same last year, though with a primary focus on the US market.

Regardless, it is apparent that Gibraltar’s leaders are intent on diversifying the territory’s gaming and fintech economy as they prepare for the consequences of the new UK tax regime, which takes effect today. The UK is a primary market for most gaming companies based in Gibraltar.